If I were in the Russian president’s shoe, I would not attack Ukraine. What is the upside? Nothing because what he wants would be achieved by staying his military divisions around Ukraine to prevent foreign interventions into the Ukraine’s “internal affairs” meaning Ukrainians (the government in Kiev) fighting Ukrainians (the separatists and their sleepers in Kiev and Odessa). That would happen around the U.S. election in November. Supported by Russia’s overwhelming fire power only a few miles from the Ukrainian border, the separatists would just move to the Ukraine’s capital and declare victory or some sort of conciliatory statement a la Afghanistan then Ukraine would become at least a friendly country to Russia and in no time it’s ally.
Would the U. S. and its allies in Europe interfere in that scenario? I doubt it. President Biden has said many times the U.S would retaliate against Russia IF RUSSIA ATTACKED Ukraine. So, if Russia did not attack then, any retaliatory measure is just a formality and mild such as telling the Germans to postpone the approval of the Nordstream gas pipeline for a few months then business returns to usual.
Why would president Biden have to involve the U.S. in that conflict? He should not and would not. If Ukrainians fought Ukrainians, the U.S. would uphold its overt principle of not interfering in another country’s internal affairs. If a pro-Russian sat in Kiev’s presidential place replacing the current pro-western president, Volodymir Zelenskyy, so be it. The U.S. would save tons of money and sooner or later, American business people would be visiting Ukraine abundantly.
I tend to believe this scenario because Mr. Putin has shown to be a clever strategist, very cautious, and has so far made very few mistakes.
