EUROPE’S RUDE AWAKENING

President Trump declared “America First” as his foreign policy when he first ran for president in 2016 but the Europeans did not pay attention. They should have, as the slogan was rooted in the American non-interventionism that opposed the U.S.’s entering both World Wars. The president and his people have repeated it on numerous occasions. The Europeans had good reasons to neglect such ominous sign of an earth shaking political, and military, turnabout because Americans and Europeans were ideologically brothers and sisters. Defending Europe was to protect America’s security.
They may perhaps have been warned behind the scenes of the changes, but Europe never had a second thought about Washington’s commitment to the American-European alliance. The president loudly but reasonably demanded that Europe pay their NATO’s full dues on time. After all NATO was more about Europe than America. Trying to cheat on their financial responsibility was not very nice. But they probably laughed at the idea of paying the dues in full. You are, they thought, scared of the Russians more than we do. A few months ago, former President Joe Biden’s administration’s commitment to the defense of Ukraine was not in doubt.
In only three weeks since the change of the guards in Washington, the world has drastically changed. To be more accurate, American foreign policy has shifted in a different direction because the underlying fundamentals of world and domestic political dynamics have changed.
First, Russia is no longer considered by Trump’s Washington a foe. Quiet and seemingly small things spoke loud and clear. Biden had tried for four years to get Marc Fogel, who brought MEDICAL marijuana to Russia and was imprisoned since 2021, released. Putin just ignored it. Dmitry Peskov, President Putin’s spokesperson, threw a smoke grenade into diplomacy, complaining ostentatiously that the U.S.-Russian relations were at a historic low. Then, a call from President Trump, Fogel was out of the Russian prison and back to the U.S. President Putin does not have the habit of releasing prisoners after receiving a phone call. A quid pro quo was, and is still, at work.
What is it?
It is a new alignment of ideals and security among America, Europe, and Russia. The elephant in the room is China.
For centuries Americans and the Europeans looked at the Chinese and saw nothing more respectable than a cook, a valet, a coolie, or a bunching bag for Peter Sellers to hit when he came home. Then suddenly, the West discovered that whatever they did, the Chinese did as well or better, from a kitchen knife to a supercomputer. The West built an atomic bomb, they built an atomic bomb. The West constructed the Space Station, they did the same. The West went to the moon, they also did and to its other side where no western country has ever been. They have built airplanes and now carriers. In America, we were in the midst of marveling at Silicon Valley’s geniuses building ChatGPT and before we got over our ecstasy, they showcased DeepSeek, which works as competently as ChatGPT but costs users much less, about 3.67% of ChatGPT’s price.
By now, America has probably found new respect for them. But while it doesn’t really know what is going on, it must be careful and prepare itself. That requires a pivot of strategy to deal with the Chinese phenomenon.
America’s interest in the Pacific, from Japan along the coast down to Indonesia to Australia and New Zealand is huge. Any of these countries fell under China’s influence would cause a seismic shift in the balance of power in favor of China and against the U.S. Confronting China by itself in the Pacific would probably be a doable task but expensive in terms of money and human sacrifices. A better solution is to create a formidable pressure on China’s north border to force them to have a second thought about expanding its power eastward and southward. That would come from, you guess it, Russia. The American “quid” is Russia working with U.S. to deter China. The Russian “quo” is Ukraine falling back into Russia’s sphere of influence. That would leave Europe in the lurch and the U.S. endure a lot of uncomfortable nagging.
Europe must be made aware of the new reality that it has to survive on its own, starting with Ukraine whose abandonment by the U.S. is no longer a possibility; it is a reality. It is a bribe the U.S. is paying to get Russia into a new alliance, let’s call it US-Russia North Pacific Alliance.
Europe has no alternative but to mobilize their industrial powerhouses to prop up their defense capability. One hopes that it will not be too late to save Ukraine from that repeated tragedy of dividing a country and its people.
The bond between Europe and America is too deep, culturally, traditionally, and ideologically for one side to leave the other. That was the conventional belief. Such belief did not count the thinking and calculation of MAGA.
JOHN P. LE PHONG.