MR. PUTIN’S PLAN B
Like all politicians, Mr. Putin wanted the easy way. Surrounding Ukraine with 15 divisions of Russian soldiers with a reputation for taking no prisoners, noisy tanks and scary sight of the big guns agitating for action only a few miles from the Ukraine’s borders, Mr. Putin had high hope that its president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy would shake and beg for a meeting with him, in Sochi perhaps. There, Mr. Putin would magnanimously dictate the terms. He would achieve his goals without invasion or bloodshed: a friendlier Ukraine and the world’s admiration for his statesmanship. But his plan did not pan out as he wished.

During the 1968 Tet Offensive, the North Vietnamese central command believed that the Vietnamese populace in South Viet Nam would rise up and the South Vietnamese government would collapse, saving them the hard work. The Russian leadership probably entertained the same thought about the Ukrainians but unlike the North Vietnamese, they had a Plan B.

No rising up by the Ukrainians, no successful move by the separatists, and Mr. Zelenskyy is surprisingly heroic and full of stamina. Contrary to Mr. Putin’s belief, he is no joker. So, Mr. Putin had to execute his Plan B, invading Ukraine. But Plan B, he knows, is fraught with unknown dangers, probably a desperate move.

The defeat in Afghanistan must be on the mind of the Russians including Mr. Putin. Going into Ukraine, Mr. Putin must be haunted by the specter of defeat, and indeed he looked tired and haunted on TV. Thus, he and his generals lack the needed psychological stability supported by past victories in the battle fields.

He is facing the same adversary elements as in Afghanistan, but more formidable in Ukraine. Just like in the Russian-Afghanistan war, the devilish Americans stay by the ringside playing a corner man and spectator cheering and supporting his opponent, and now coupled with their ability to impose sanctions, expanded as the Russians get wealthier, where they hurt Russia and its leadership the most. Afghanistan has its mountains, but Ukraine has fighters as fierce and better generals and strategists who know how to fight the Russians after they had worked alongside them for the last century. They also have anticipated the Russian invasion after they lost Crimea and been well prepared, with the help no doubt of the U.S.A. and NATO.

But the gravest danger is probably lurking in the Kremlin. This should be well noted by some of the Republicans who want a dictatorship. If he lost the war, or the outcome were not what is expected by the Politburo in Moscow, Mr. Putin would be done. No chance to explain at a Congressional committee hearing or to the citizens in an election campaign. No one there
would want to hear from him, and probably of him. The thought should shake him to the core while he needs all the calmness that he could muster to conduct the war.

In the next few weeks or months, that Sword of Damocles on his head makes Mr. Putin very unpredictable and dangerous.

If I were in the Russian president’s shoe, I would not attack Ukraine. What is the upside? Nothing because what he wants would be achieved by staying his military divisions around Ukraine to prevent foreign interventions into the Ukraine’s “internal affairs” meaning Ukrainians (the government in Kiev) fighting Ukrainians (the separatists and their sleepers in Kiev and Odessa). That would happen around the U.S. election in November. Supported by Russia’s overwhelming fire power only a few miles from the Ukrainian border, the separatists would just move to the Ukraine’s capital and declare victory or some sort of conciliatory statement a la Afghanistan then Ukraine would become at least a friendly country to Russia and in no time it’s ally.

Would the U. S. and its allies in Europe interfere in that scenario? I doubt it. President Biden has said many times the U.S would retaliate against Russia IF RUSSIA ATTACKED Ukraine. So, if Russia did not attack then, any retaliatory measure is just a formality and mild such as telling the Germans to postpone the approval of the Nordstream gas pipeline for a few months then business returns to usual.

Why would president Biden have to involve the U.S. in that conflict? He should not and would not. If Ukrainians fought Ukrainians, the U.S. would uphold its overt principle of not interfering in another country’s internal affairs. If a pro-Russian sat in Kiev’s presidential place replacing the current pro-western president, Volodymir Zelenskyy, so be it. The U.S. would save tons of money and sooner or later, American business people would be visiting Ukraine abundantly.

I tend to believe this scenario because Mr. Putin has shown to be a clever strategist, very cautious, and has so far made very few mistakes.

DEMOCRATIC AMERICA IS BEING TESTED – PART VII
Human beings have developed and progressed far enough to understand that nature does not discriminate, and God does not play favoring. The earth is one community and hatred for one another is erosive and destructive.

People are originally good, Confucius said, and he was right. The populace is ambivalent about races just like they are ambivalent about neighbors, not knowing for sure if they are good or bad until a rumor spreads around. They are susceptible to persuasion and easily led astray by unscrupulous manipulators.

Racism promoting division and mutual hatred is anathema to democracy. Racism itself presents a serious problem. But the real problem is that it has been deliberately used, manipulated, and exploited by extremist political operators to gain advantages.

America’s Democracy is a political creature standing on two legs, one being the Democratic Party and the other the Republican Party. The two-legged Democracy has worked so well and effectively for the last 300 years to create democratic institutions that have in turn protected and defended the wellbeing of Americans.
The Republican Party, or at least its extremist faction, does not seem to respect that system anymore. They have used racism as a weapon to gain power. But the extremists have succeeded in nudging the Party toward extremism. If the Party is not careful, it is quite possible that racism is not just a weapon but will become its philosophy, its ideology. There have been signs that they want to turn Democracy into a dictatorship.

The fate of American Democracy is intertwined with the fate of the Republican Party. To save Democracy, it is imperative that the Republican Party be saved. It sounds ridiculous in the current political environment, but the Democratic Party will have to play a crucial role in saving the Republican Party. It should start with efforts to convince the 74 Million that its policies serve their interest as well.

The Democrats must work with the silent (hopefully) majority of the Republicans including the long idling Republican Establishment, to save Democracy, which political theorists have agreed is the best political system in the whole history of mankind – best for everyone including the extremists.

It is not difficult to imagine what would happen to them if the January 6 riot took place in Moscow, or the defiance of the government’s policy on COVID vaccination happened in Beijing.