Part 5:
It has been repeated, by Mr. Putin no less, that Ukrainians are Russians, the same, like brothers. One thing about brothers is they know one another well. Since 2004, with the loss of Crimea, the Ukrainians must have anticipated that their “brothers” would not let them alone. They, possibly at the prodding of NATO and the U.S., have learned the Russian strategies, their weaknesses, and their strengths.
Mr. Putin’s FSB and SVR must have done extensive research on Ukraine, its people and especially its leaders. They know quite a lot about the Ukraine and the Ukrainian people (they are “brothers”, remember?). But they did not know and could not have known well one person that counted. Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
One aspect of the Ukrainian political system is it is democratic. When, from nowhere, a candidate named Volodymyr Zelenskyy was elected president of Ukraine, the Russian intelligent agencies did not know much about Mr. Zelenskyy except that he had been a comedian. Even if they had in-depth research on him, they would not have discovered his remarkable characteristics crucial for fighting a long battle against Russia: his unbelievable courage, energy, stamina, persistence and obviously he has the support of his people. These virtues would not appear in normal time but only under special and threatening circumstances like when a grandmother fighting off, successfully a lion with a broom when it tried to climb onto her trailer while her grandchild was sleeping. His strengths showed when Russia started bullying Ukraine. His brave efforts have inspired his people and people around the world.
Mr. Zelenskyy and his staff could not have forgotten Crimea. They had eight years to prepare for this invasion.
The Russians were very good at defending their own country against invading armies from Napoleon to Hitler. Their successes relied much on their deep knowledge of their local territories (and weather) and the support from the rear, which abundantly provided supplies and people for the Russian armed forces. They also succeeded in attacking small countries with no defense force. The Ukraine invasion is not a defense on their own territory, and Ukraine is not a small country, which also has received tremendous support all over the world, political, materials and weapons. The situation looks good for a Ukraine’s victory.
The question is whether the world will help Ukraine to fight until they get their independence and freedom back, or the big nations will take their spreadsheets out and start making decisions based on the balance sheet of the costs and profits affecting their economies.
Ukraine’s hope is also boosted by a historical fact: Russia cannot be trusted to get rid of their bullying nature and learn to adopt democratic institutions and deal with other nations in a civilized manner. Therefore, the U.S. and Western Europe must have seen the need to devise and have devised and perfected an effective post-Afghanistan strategy to deal with it.
(Next, Part 6)
