Mr. Putin has not demanded to annex Ukraine to make it a province of Russia. He does not even demand territory more than what he already has under his firm control, Crimea and some territory in the Donbass. That means, he has had no plan to take Ukraine and hold it. The 15 divisions, tanks, artillery, and air power are intended for show to scare the victim to get what he wants without actually using force. Just like a parade in Red Square with the colossal missiles which are probably empty metal tubes meant to impress an audience, Mr. Putin’s invasion prefaced with divisions of Russian draftee soldiers surrounding Ukraine was to impress Kyiv and the Ukrainian leadership. In a show, he does not have to deploy the real power.
He is stalled by the fierce resistance of the Ukrainians and unprepared to take Ukraine and hold it. He now realizes that he has underestimated the resolve of the Ukrainian people and miscalculated the reaction of the West. His threat has not achieved the intended goal. Things have turned around and suddenly he and his military have become a laughingstock. They are on the defensive. They are faced with the possibility that their military reputation is damaged, and its might is questioned.
Taking and occupying Ukraine may now be Mr. Putin’s objective. That presents real danger to Ukraine, and probably the world.
To do that, he would have to move some divisions from his elite military forces, the real fighters (the units that have a history of real combats including fighting Mao Zedong’s hard bitten Red Army) from the borders with China, to Ukraine. If he felt humiliated (and he may have), he would certainly do more with Russia’s considerable military power to prove that he meant business. He might be pushed to go through with it. The conflict would escalade and the danger to the world multiplies.
What unnerves everyone is the opaque policy of the West. We are still living in a world where the bully with physical power is given too much leeway. For a bully such as Russia, would a few Javelin and Stinger missiles do the job? Hardly. They are more symbolic than a real blow to the head of the bully. If Mr. Putin thinks that he can do Ukraine, the rest of the world should make him believe that we could do Vladivostok. Well, just a thought.
Russia must be made to understand that it has more real estate on earth than any other country that is extremely rich with undeveloped wealth. Tend to it, make it productive to elevate your people’s standard of living above the starving level.
In the 21st Century, it is pervert and a crooked thinking for a country spanning 11 time zones to invade a small country to take a little bit of its land here and there for “national security” reason, a phony pretext for naked invasion. It has been more busy spending its resources to build weapons and engage in skirmishes along its long borders than developing the land it already has and improve the life of its people.
Unlike sending the parade show soldiers into Ukraine, Mr. Putin must be very careful sending in his elite, no-nonsense divisions. This time, things might get out of control, his or the West’s.
