MR. PUTIN’S PLAN B
Like all politicians, Mr. Putin wanted the easy way. Surrounding Ukraine with 15 divisions of Russian soldiers with a reputation for taking no prisoners, noisy tanks and scary sight of the big guns agitating for action only a few miles from the Ukraine’s borders, Mr. Putin had high hope that its president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy would shake and beg for a meeting with him, in Sochi perhaps. There, Mr. Putin would magnanimously dictate the terms. He would achieve his goals without invasion or bloodshed: a friendlier Ukraine and the world’s admiration for his statesmanship. But his plan did not pan out as he wished.
During the 1968 Tet Offensive, the North Vietnamese central command believed that the Vietnamese populace in South Viet Nam would rise up and the South Vietnamese government would collapse, saving them the hard work. The Russian leadership probably entertained the same thought about the Ukrainians but unlike the North Vietnamese, they had a Plan B.
No rising up by the Ukrainians, no successful move by the separatists, and Mr. Zelenskyy is surprisingly heroic and full of stamina. Contrary to Mr. Putin’s belief, he is no joker. So, Mr. Putin had to execute his Plan B, invading Ukraine. But Plan B, he knows, is fraught with unknown dangers, probably a desperate move.
The defeat in Afghanistan must be on the mind of the Russians including Mr. Putin. Going into Ukraine, Mr. Putin must be haunted by the specter of defeat, and indeed he looked tired and haunted on TV. Thus, he and his generals lack the needed psychological stability supported by past victories in the battle fields.
He is facing the same adversary elements as in Afghanistan, but more formidable in Ukraine. Just like in the Russian-Afghanistan war, the devilish Americans stay by the ringside playing a corner man and spectator cheering and supporting his opponent, and now coupled with their ability to impose sanctions, expanded as the Russians get wealthier, where they hurt Russia and its leadership the most. Afghanistan has its mountains, but Ukraine has fighters as fierce and better generals and strategists who know how to fight the Russians after they had worked alongside them for the last century. They also have anticipated the Russian invasion after they lost Crimea and been well prepared, with the help no doubt of the U.S.A. and NATO.
But the gravest danger is probably lurking in the Kremlin. This should be well noted by some of the Republicans who want a dictatorship. If he lost the war, or the outcome were not what is expected by the Politburo in Moscow, Mr. Putin would be done. No chance to explain at a Congressional committee hearing or to the citizens in an election campaign. No one there
would want to hear from him, and probably of him. The thought should shake him to the core while he needs all the calmness that he could muster to conduct the war.
In the next few weeks or months, that Sword of Damocles on his head makes Mr. Putin very unpredictable and dangerous.
