(PART 6)
In a battle, if one side abandons a strategy without another strategy to replace it, it is called defeat. That happened to Napoleon in Moscow and to Hitler in Stalingrad. They decided to stop the siege without knowing exactly what else to do next.
That experience was studied well by the Americans. Before the U.S. left Viet Nam, it was making sure that another strategy was under way and successfully carried out before it disengaged from Viet Nam. It had secretly negotiated with the Chinese and formed a working relationship with China. So, when it left Viet Nam, it was a brilliant move, a triumph, not a retreat or defeat.
So, when the U.S. withdrew from Syria and abruptly left Afghanistan, the world had to assume that before abandoning the use of military forces with the attending waste of economic resources, costs of human lives, and the possibility of triggering a nuclear war, the U.S. had devised a new strategy. It turned out it was not a new one but a revised and much improved one: sanctioning.
Sanctions had been used before against a few countries by the U.S. such as North Korea, Iran and even China. Mr. Putin probably calculated that the sanctions against Russia would not be really severe and the damage a price he was willing to pay for the grand prize of forcing Ukraine to be a vassal of Russia. Considering Europe’s heavy reliance on Russia energy, Russia being one of the world’s most prolific producers of oil, the democratic countries averse to war, and billions of dollars invested in Russia by European and American investors, he bet that Europe and the U.S. could not go far to punish Russia. In the past, U.S.’s sanctions, in many instances, did not receive unanimous support from its allies, especially Germany, which, in addition to the possible disruption of the current supplies of oil and gas by Russia, would not want to jeopardize the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline.
Mr. Putin was probably unprepared for the all-out sanctions against every aspect of life in Russia led by U.S. with the unanimous support of its allies. The costs to Russia are humongous. If the sanctions continued, there would be no doubt that the Russian campaign against Ukraine would stop, and Mr. Putin would lose his big gamble.
But the sanctions do cost the Allies also, albeit of a smaller scale and bearable. The outcome of Mr. Zelensky’s war against Mr. Putin’s aggression will depend on how far and how long the West is willing to go. As mentioned in an earlier article, if the West started pulling out their spreadsheet and balancing the pros and cons, there might be a compromised solution. But one thing is for sure, Ukraine would not be completely independent as Mr. Zelensky and his partners would want, and its territories might not be intact. Crimea and the Donbass might probably be officialized as Russia’s territories.
Let’s wish Mr. Zelensky and his people success and good luck. Let’s hope that the Democratic World led by the U.S. does not lose its principles and its will. Let’s hope that they do not impose an artificial and expedient solution on the Ukrainian people.
END.
